As two of the world’s largest exporters of wheat and barley, the disruption of Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Russia’s growing season and harvest will have far-reaching effects on global food security. Russia has targeted Ukrainian agricultural production sites in an attempt to debilitate Ukraine’s economy and food security, and many Ukrainian farmers have been unable to harvest or plant wheat since the conflict began. Russian attacks and blockades on major Ukrainian shipping ports have also crippled Ukraine’s exports of harvested wheat and fertilizers.
Any disruption in grain supply has the potential to increase food insecurity. Since the world-rocking 2008 food crisis, Dr. Susan Bridle, a DU professor specializing in food security, believes that a lesson has been learned about the importance of grain reserves.
“Grain reserves are stronger now and should help cushion the impact of the current crisis somewhat,” she said. However, Dr. Bridle pointed out that despite these improvements, “families, and especially children, who experience food insecurity face developmental issues in the long term. This is a major problem.”
Dr. Bridle also noted that spikes in food prices often lead countries to “hunker down” by barring agricultural exports and focusing on food self-sufficiency.
While these strategies are understandable, they are not always beneficial in the long run. It is often more sustainable for states with limited water sources and arable land to balance domestic agriculture with food imports. Sustained isolationism can weaken global food supply chains.
Egypt is one such country currently trying to mitigate the effects of global disruption on its food security. Before the conflict, Egypt imported 85% of its grain from Ukraine and Russia. In March, Egypt’s wheat imports from Ukraine dropped by 42% from last year while imports from Russia increased by 24%. This resulted in a 25% spike in the price of unsubsidized bread in just three weeks.
The current food security situation in Egypt harkens to the massive food shortages in the years leading up to the 2011 Egyptian Revolution, or the Arab Spring. Extreme weather events in 2007 and 2008 caused a spike in grain prices and forced the Mubarak regime to heavily subsidize the price of bread.
By the time additional droughts swept China and Russia in 2010, the government’s budget could not accommodate the necessary subsidies and food prices increased by an overall 18.9%. The price of unsubsidized bread tripled and the government couldn’t afford to provide subsidized bread at the necessary scale.
While the 2011 Egyptian Revolution was a long time coming, the price of bread is considered by many scholars to have been a catalyst in starting it. Food insecurity in Syria in 2011 also played a major role in the escalation of peaceful protests into revolution and, ultimately, civil war.
Dr. Ahmed Abd Rabou, a professor at the Josef Korbel School for International Studies, believes that Egypt has not learned from 2011. “They just kept relying mainly on foreign exports of grain from Russia and Ukraine and US donations,” he said.
Dr. Rabou sees three options for Egypt going forward: “[Egypt] can convince the Russians to continue to sell them grain at a reasonable price; they can change the market to focus more on India, which will be more expensive; or, they can hope for more FAO and US donations.”
If Egypt is unable to follow through with any of these options, they will be hard-pressed to provide bread–the substance of life–for Egyptians. This could cause “dramatic changes,” according to Dr. Abd Rabou.
While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has certainly changed the political landscape in Europe, the food insecurity Russia is causing by targeting Ukrainian agricultural mechanisms and blocking exports could also spark political unrest in countries reliant on Ukrainian wheat.
