In February, the University of Denver (DU) started planning for a $20-30 million budget deficit for the next fiscal year. The main factor contributing to this deficit is a “demographic cliff,” as cited by Chancellor Jeremy Haefner and Provost Elizabeth Loboa in an employee town hall meeting held on Feb. 18.
DU has seen a steady decline in enrollment over the past four years, dropping from 14,304 students in 2022 to a projected 11,775 in the fiscal year 2026 budget proposal.
“I think we need to be clear to people, it’s always been called a demographic cliff, it’s not a cliff at all, it’s really gradual over time,” said Vice Chancellor for Enrollment Todd Rinehart.
Both Rinehart and Haefner spoke about a shift in student interests from private universities like DU to large public state schools as another significant factor contributing to the enrollment decline.
“What we’ve seen the last couple [of] years with enrollment has not been about the demographics. It’s been more about an overnight shift to students in large numbers gravitating toward public flagship schools,” Rinehart said.
Despite these declines, Loboa pushed what appears to be hopeful metrics for future enrollment in response to employee concern that enrollment projections were “overestimated as in previous years.”
“Here’s what was done for this current cycle: 1,400 first time, first year [students] at an average tuition discount rate of 60 percent. Right now, we are over 30 percent up in undergraduate applications,” said Loboa. “That’s the highest in DU’s history.”
This 31 percent increase reflects a jump after a historically low number of applicants last year. Additionally, it includes incomplete applications that are not eligible for review. There has been a 25 percent increase in complete applications.
To encourage more applicants, the admissions team has partnered with multiple college search platforms as well as the Tuition Exchange program, which allows faculty to receive discounted tuition benefits for their dependents.
In addition, the university waived the $65 application fee for all high school students in its database, including those who had visited campus and those who made their name available to colleges through the SAT.
“That certainly was a big driver in our application growth as well,” Rinehart said.
In a presentation shared with The Clarion by Rinehart, the university has admitted 15,651 students as of March 11 — which is a 10 percent increase from this time last year. Of those students, 410 have committed to DU, showing no significant increase from this time last year.
“An aspirational goal was 1,400,” said Rinehart. “We’re still shooting for that. Behind the curtain, the university is planning and budgeting for something more in the 1,250 range, mitigating any further budget adjustments in the fall.”
Last year’s incoming class was around 1,180 students from a pool of 14,132 admitted students.
Haefner and Loboa both urged employees to help encourage admitted students to attend DU.
“We have record high applications, help us highlight the value proposition. Help us show these students that they should be here,” Loboa said. “That $20 to 30 million is a projected revenue decline. Being almost 67 percent tuition revenue here, if we could bump up the students, grad and undergrad, we could do better.”
The university recently purchased the Cable Center for a reported $19.5 million. University officials say the building will be used as an admissions space aimed at making a stronger impression on prospective students.
As DU pushes to increase the number of admitted students who enroll, administrators have not indicated plans to publicly discuss potential program cuts, mergers and budget issues.
“A lot of times they don’t ask about these issues,” said Rinehart.
The enrollment decline extends beyond DU, impacting many private universities where financial pressures are looming.
“I don’t know a colleague at another school who isn’t doing budget cuts right now,” Rinehart said.
While the outlook on private higher education continues to change, universities like DU will work to offset the approaching “enrollment cliff” as uncertainty about the future increases.
