Biden has recently announced that he will be running for re-election. The president is already the oldest commander-in-chief in American history at the age of 80. He would be 86 by the end of his second term, if re-elected. This point in particular is the reason many Democrats are frustrated, yet there are a number of other reasons that deserve attention as well.
By far the most frustrating aspect of Biden’s appeal is that it is based on fear. As an incumbent, many view Biden as the strongest opponent to Trump. For one, he has already beat him in an election. But he is also a comfortable and familiar face to moderates, and as a result, might attract their votes again.
The threat of Trump winning another presidential election seems insurmountable to Democrats, cementing Biden’s safe-bet appeal. Yet this understanding is more flawed than one might expect. With Trump weakened by recent events, there is little reason to believe Biden needs to be the Democratic front-runner.
For one, Trump is not exactly doing well these days. His endorsements in the 2022 midterms were somewhat underwhelming, and in some cases it appears that an increasingly unpopular Trump may have actually cost the Republican party key seats in Congress.
At first glance, Trump-endorsed candidates seemed to have done well. Around 82% of his endorsements won their race. Yet the vast majority of these successful candidates were in non-competitive districts where a win was borderline guaranteed.
That being said, in the 36 most competitive House seats, all five of the Trump-backed candidates lost. Furthermore, of all six races that were contributed to by Trump’s super pac, only a single candidate won. These results heavily influenced the underperformance of the Republican party in the 2022 midterms, to which Trump has burdened much of the blame.
Especially after Biden’s first two years in office was expecting a red wave, where the Republican party would gain control of the Senate and secure a comfortable majority in the House. Not only did the Democrats hold onto the Senate, but the Republican majority that was gained in the House was extremely slim. Trump’s performance in the 2022 midterms might signal to Republicans that they need a new front-runner.
Trump is also in legal peril. Trump was arraigned last month in New York and is facing 34 felony counts of election fraud. He is also entangled in numerous other high-profile legal cases, including election fraud charges in Georgia and inquiries into his illegal possession of highly classified documents.
Trump, if convicted of a felony, could still technically run for president. This would be extremely difficult, however, and the likelihood of the Republican party allowing that to happen is not high.
This focus on Trump is important because the primary motivations behind people supporting Biden is so that Trump does not get elected. But what happens if Trump can’t run or does not get the nomination? There are a number of potential candidates that could fill his shoes, and if that happens, someone should fill Biden’s shoes as well.
If the Republican party were to gain a new face, such as Ron DeSantis for example, Biden would appear to voters as representative of a status quo that is not working for many. On the other hand, DeSantis or any other of the potential front-runners would appear to Republican voters as a breath of fresh air and something to get excited about.
All this is to say that Democrats need something to get excited about as well. Biden is not exactly a motivating force. What motivated people to vote for him was negative partisanship, which is best explained as people voting for Biden not because they loved him, but rather because they hated Trump.
In fact, it is Trump who motivated people to vote for Biden, not Biden. If a force like Trump is not present to motivate people to vote for Biden through negative partisanship, then it is hard to see a reality where Biden wins. What Democrats need is a candidate that depends on his or her attributes to get people to vote. Not a candidate that depends on the Republican candidate being flawed.
