The 10 Republican contests held nationwide last night led to mixed results for the three leading GOP candidates; all things and states considered, last night essentially meant that the race will drag on for several more primaries.
States included last night were Virginia, Alaska, Idaho, Oklahoma, Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio, North Dakota, Massachusetts and Vermont. The largest prize of the night was Ohio: the Buckeye State has been a competitive electoral state for years, and every successful presidential candidate must win this state’s prized electoral votes. This Republican contest went on late into the night, and was one of the last major states to be called. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney eventually squeaked out a victory in the state, not unlike his thin margins in Iowa (essentially a tie) and Michigan. Should the party’s presumed frontrunner and supposedly “electable” candidate be winning by tiny margins? Romney is actually a fairly weak frontrunner, of whom many Republicans are actually skeptical. He has failed to win the trust of American conservatives.
In the end, Romney ended up with a handful of states and delegates, former Senator Rick Santorum ended up with a few states and delegates, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich picked up his first win outside of South Carolina: Georgia. Ron Paul, the Congressman from Texas, didn’t win any states outright, but he did capture a few delegates from 3rd– and 4th-place finishes.
The men’s speeches at the end of the evening were as revealing as the wins and losses themselves. Their tones, themes and messages spelled out interesting conclusions.
Gingrich, in his speech, focused on narrow issues, essentially pandering and hammering President Obama on his energy record. Gingrich tried to drive home his repetitive “$2.50 gasoline” message, in which he promises to bring down gas prices to $2.50 per gallon. This cheap election-year gimmick is clearly a last-ditch effort. Gingrich has little chance of victory outside of the South and will have a hard time moving forward from yesterday.
Santorum’s speech followed Romney’s example, in emphasizing his wife’s influence and giving her credit. This is a popular tactic in distracting voters, as potential First Ladies are always more attractive, usually more appealing and more interesting to voters than their political spouses, whom voters see daily on TV and in ads. Santorum sounded ill in his speech last night – his voice was wavering, more nasal and awkward than usual. It was a bit off, and it’s not unusual for a candidate to drop out of the race for “health” issues.
Romney’s speech tried to downplay the night, focusing mainly on hammering Obama on spending, the economy, the military, healthcare, taxes and gas prices. This was sharply contrasted with Santorum’s speech, as Santorum focused on his own record, soaring rhetoric about the American ideal and his own views. Ann Romney, superstar political wife, once again introduced her husband to the crowd. Romney’s “congratulations” to other candidates came off as super condescending. This is the problem he has with GOP voters; Romney acts like a mature, elder statesman to the other men in the race, even though his perception as a Republican paterfamilias is weak at best. Hecklers also interrupted Romney several times during his address while his supporters tried to offset the shouting by continually cheering cheesy little slogans like “Go, Mitt, go!” or “We need Mitt!”
In terms of delegate math, which will be important before the Tampa convention later this year, Romney has around 25 percent of delegates needed for the nomination, while Santorum has around half as many. There were 419 delegates assigned last night, part of only 16 percent of the 1144 needed for the party’s nomination. Clearly the math indicates that this race has a long way to go on yet.
