After chaotic weeks of polling, scrambling and constant political and media maneuvering, the Republican Party has concluded its first Presidential contest of the drawn-out Presidential process in Iowa. With a practical tie in the Jan. 3 contest between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (which I predicted in a blog just a few weeks ago), the race is now down to a two- or three-man contest.
While Romney has been the “inevitable” frontrunner for months, Santorum has earned bragging rights for tonight; a razor-thin margin separated the top two finishers. Ron Paul finished in the top three as well, only 4 percent behind Romney and Santorum, who tied at 25 percent.
The Iowa Caucus, a landmark in the GOP field, was unpredictable and mercurial this year, and observers saw numerous frontrunners and general madness in regards to polling and turnout. With strong evangelical and youth dynamics, the caucus shaped up to be a last-minute rise in the polls for formerly unknown Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who lost re-election in 2006. His brand of Pennsylvania hill-country populism, strong Catholicism and great personal story made him the co-favorite of Iowa caucus-goers.
Romney, who has run a slow, steady and well-funded effort, performed admirably in the contests. His speech at the end of the evening, however, was lackluster. He regurgitated much of his standard, blasé campaign rhetoric and rehashed his talking points and scripted applause-grabbing lines. He also congratulated Santorum and Texas Representative and third-place finisher Ron Paul in his speech; this move came off as condescending and showed that Romney thinks of himself as an inevitable frontrunner and presumptive nominee. His campaign will continue in New Hampshire’s primary next week, where the former Massachusetts governor has seen a consistent double-digit lead in polls.
Santorum’s evening speech, on the other hand, highlighted his family ties, blue-collar background and strong social and economic conservative credentials. He seemed more interested in a protectionist view in his speech and also emphasized his plans to reduce corporate taxes and attempt to bring more manufacturing jobs here to the United States.
On another note, the second-tier Republican candidates had a rough and telling night.
Michele Bachmann ended the night with around 5 percent of the vote, essentially ending her campaign. Observers can read the tea leaves in her speech from the night, where she spoke in a scripted and fairly emotionless manner, uncharacteristic of the GOP’s firebrand.
Texas Governor Rick Perry ended with 10 percent of the vote, enough to allow his campaign to limp to South Carolina and end his campaign with dignity there.
Newt Gingrich ended the night on a fiery note, with 13 percent of the vote, vowing in his cantankerous and unique way to continue his campaign, work to win the New Hampshire primary and hamper Mitt Romney’s effort in the Northeast.
Moving forward from here, the party must face a dangerous crossroad: travel down a bloody road and pit Romney versus Santorum in a split that divides the GOP to its core or tread the easy trail of nominating the safe bet in a general election, Romney. In the end, only time, fundraising and donations, voters changing opinions, media coverage, black arcane magic, momentum and drop-out candidates can tell.
