Photo by: Justin Edmond

Ken Pollack, an expert on Middle East politics and military analysis, gave a lecture last Tuesday about the interconnected problems in the Middle East and potential solutions to diffuse tensions.

The lecture, titled “The Middle East – Can It Get Worse?” focused on Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Iran.

All of the problems in the Middle East are “reinforcing each other and creating bigger problems,” said Pollack. The main issue in all four countries is that they are “failed states” with “security vacuums,” which generate bigger problems, such as terrorism.

Iraq became a failed state in April 2003 when the United States ended Saddam Hussein’s regime without replacing it, said Pollack. The regime had been holding the country together. “Without recognizing this,” he said, “we can’t find a solution.”

The combination of a failed state and a security vacuum, also created by the United States, has produced “a playing field for terrorists,” according to Pollack. The Iraqi people were “left without protection,” allowing for militias and insurgents to take over. These groups are providing the Iraqi people with basic services, including food and safety that the government is no longer able to, said Pollack.

The removal of Hussein created an “opportunity to push chaos into civil war,” he said. “Our mistakes are making their [terrorist groups, militias, etc.] job that much easier.”

Pollack’s concern is that the civil war in Iraq may escalate since civil wars have a tendency to leak beyond borders. They also have the potential to turn into regional wars involving many states. This is the “great danger of Iraq,” and it possesses “profound ramifications” for the region because the economies involved in these civil wars are “critical” to the global economy owing to their production of petroleum, said Pollack.

Lebanon is in a similar situation to Iraq, according to Pollack. It is corrupt and lacks the ability to offer the necessities to its people. Militias and Hezbollah have gained power as a result. Hezbollah provides the protection the people of Lebanon need. In fact, according to Pollack, Iraqi militants are learning from the actions of Hezbollah.

Palestine also faces a comparable position, with the rise of Hamas as a consequence of the absence of a stable government. The “opening rounds of civil war” are already visible, said Pollack.

All of these wars “influence each other,” he said, which makes any possibility for resolution very difficult and time-consuming. “At the core [of these problems] is a similar set of issues,” said Pollack, so the solution to each will be related but needs to be “tailored” to individual circumstances.

“If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging,” said Pollack who compared the current situation in the Middle East to an ever-growing hole. What people need to do is stop “the mistaken policies and reverse course,” and climb out of the hole. The Bush administration is trying to start doing this, said Pollack.

His solution is the creation of a secure space where economic, social and political institutions can begin to be rebuilt. The focus needs to be on the “most basic level,” which has been disregarded up until now, said Pollack. Government capacity, specifically of local governments, needs to be built up in order to undermine the power of the militias. We need to “create a situation where people don’t need to look to them [the militias]” for protection, said Pollack.

Military presence is also necessary, but one that is “capable of carving out” the necessary security, said Pollack. The goal must change from creating security by killing the “bad guys” to placing the priority on securing the population.

Pollack spoke about specific actions that need to be taken in Iran, a country that is facing problems similar to those in the other countries mentioned. The offensive must be halted, he said. The United States must “play defense” and “heal the problems” that it created by changing who is in a position to protect the people and the legitimization of the government.

“We don’t have the option of turning our back on the Middle East,” said Pollack.

Pollack is a former CIA intelligence analyst, director for Near East and South Asian Affairs with the United Nations National Security Council and professor. He currently works for the Brookings Institution as the Director of Research for its Saban Center for Middle East Policy. He has written three books on the Middle East.