Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi continues his control of the capital city of Tripoli, despite advancing groups of rebel protesters. Gaddafi has show he isn’t afraid to sustain his power through the use of heavy and merciless military force.
“Gaddafi continues to be able to exert control in Tripoli because of heavy military repression,” said Joe Szyliowicz, professor in the Josef Korbel School of International Studies.
Much of the eastern part of the country has fallen to opposition forces, who have taken control of Benghazi, Libya’s second-largest city.
Gaddafi is using ruthless military force to suppressthe uprising, which started Tuesday, Feb. 16 in Benghazi, following the arrest of an activist.
He has ordered his security forces, along with a number of hired foreign mercenaries, to fire indiscriminately upon the protesters.
The Libyan army is estimated to be 45,000 strong, but it is unclear how many have defected to the rebel cause, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported yesterday.
The Italian foreign minister, Franco Frattini, said Wednesday last week that the death toll is likely to be around 1,000 people, according to reports in the Associated Press.
Human Rights Watch has estimated that 300 people are dead, which the group says is a conservative estimate.
“He has certainly no objections to using force ruthlessly,” said Szyliowicz.
The uprising in Libya is different than those of its neighbors, Egypt and Tunisia, he said.
“Each revolution, or each uprising, that is taking place in each country has its own political, historical and cultural configurations,” said Szyliowicz.
Libya is an affluent North African country, wealthy from its vast oil reserves. The Libyan protesters are mainly fighting for political and social rights, whereas Egyptians and Tunisians called for economic rights as well.
“Fundamentally it’s about political, civil and social freedoms and rights,” said Korbel professor Nader Hashemi. “Economic issues are not at the forefront.”
There have been reports that the mercenaries, most of them from sub-Saharan Africa, are perpetrating some of the most violent acts against protesting civilians. The extensive use of mercenaries likely shows that Gaddafi has little loyalty within his own military, said Hashemi.
Gaddafi, who has controlled Libya for more than 40 years, has an eccentric and unusual character.
He gave a speech over the phone on Thursday claiming the Libyan youth rebellion groups were on hallucinogenic drugs, and that they had been prompted to revolt by Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda.
Gaddafi’s eccentricity and strange behavior is another reason for the uprising. Libyans are embarrassed by their leader’s antics, and wish to see him removed from power, said Hashemi.
“Gaddafi is looked at as a circus clown figure on the international stage,” he said.
The country is a tribal society, which plays a role in the unrest that some Libyans feel. Gaddafi still has support from some Libyans, in particular those of his own tribe, who he has favored heavily during his rule.
Many Libyans who do not belong to Gaddafi’s particular tribe are frustrated by the leader’s loyalty to his own group, and the nepotism that is rampant in the government, said Szyliowicz.
The world has already seen a rise in oil prices because of the unrest in Libya, as well as in the region as a whole.
“The instability in the region as a whole is causing a rise in oil prices,” said Korbel professor Rob Prince. “I don’t see some kind of shortcut to bringing the prices down, until some of these political and economic tensions are reduced.”
Oil prices are currently hovering at about $100 per barrel, the highest in two years. Bloomberg reported last week that Tokyo bank Nomura Holdings Inc. has predicted a rise to $220 per barrel, if the situation in Libya continues to deteriorate and become more violent.
Libya has vast oil reserves, and the rise in price is not due to a lack of supply, said Hashemi. Rather, the instability in the region has caused some oil companies to pull out of Libya, and allowed them to raise prices in light of the country’s uncertain future, he said.
As extremely violent as it has been, the brutality Gaddafi has ordered upon his people may not rise to the standard of genocide, depending on the definition of the term, said Szyliowicz.
If genocide is defined as a deliberate attempt to eliminate an ethnic or religious group, “His actions, nasty and ruthless, as they have been, do not constitute genocide,” he said. But, he added, “You can certainly talk about crimes against humanity.”
“He took the level of repression to a much, much higher level,” said Prince. Referring to Gaddafi’s orders to gun down protesters with war planes, Prince added, “If that’s not a war crime, I don’t know what is.”
The best way for the United Nations to address Gaddafi’s bloody suppression of the uprising would be to set up a special criminal tribunal, in order to try the leader for crimes against humanity and gross human rights abuses that have been committed in the last 10 days, said Hashemi.
Libya is the latest of a bevy of Middle Eastern and North African countries to experience protesting and uprising against dictatorial rule in the last two months, including Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Jordan.