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1. Carolina Panthers (2-14)
Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Every expert out there seems to think that the logical pick is either Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert; however I say neigh to that idea, picking a QB at No. 1 this year will end terribly for Carolina. They can afford to roll the dice and hope a second round prospect falls to them at No. 65 overall (the first pick of the third round). Dareus is arguably this year’s best player, and if last year’s draft showed us anything, a defensive tackle is as important as a good QB. Newton and Gabbert need time to develop, Dareus will be a hit immediately.
2. Denver Broncos (4-12)
Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
The brass would love Dareus to fall, but if he doesn’t then the Broncos could be looking to ship this pick to the highest bidder. It’s not a bad spot for Denver (who has never been slotted to picked this high entering a draft), because they need draft picks badly. If they can’t move down, they can still get the best linebacker prospect in the draft in Miller. If not Miler, then Patrick Peterson from LSU has to be the pick.
3. Buffalo Bills (4-12)
Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, UNC
Throwing a wrench into the draft is the Bills, who miss out on Miller and are too afraid to risk taking Newton or Gabbert. Before last season, Quinn was a sure-fire top 5 pick. He still has the talent, the question remains if he has the brains. Overall, a perfect for a Buffalo team in need of a pass rush.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Cinncy could be a huge wild card here if Newton and Gabbert are available. Honestly, I don’t see anyone in the top five biting on either QB though. The Bengals have enough to maneuver back into round 1 if they want to go after TCU’s Andy Dalton or Washington’s Jake Locker. Green is a top 5 prospect and should be gone early.
5. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Best player available in my opinion. Although not necessarily a need pick for the Cardinals, I think the organization will draft Peterson based on his ability to become a star within two to three years. It’s the smart pick, and the right pick for any team picking in the top seven. Peterson will be a marquee name in a short while, mark my words.
6. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
Julio Jones,WR, Alabama
Jones isn’t expected to go this high, but then again most analysts believe Newton and Gabbert will be gone by now. Not me. I think the Browns go after need and secure a WR who most consider very close to the top prospect at his position (Green). Anyone who watched Jones tear apart LSU two seasons ago knows what he brings to the table. He’ll be gone early as well.
7. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
I’m not in love with putting Newton here, and in fact I’m not even close to being confident that he will slide here; however, if he does someone will be trading up or San Fran may just jump the gun and go with the most talented player on the board. But with talent comes risk, and the Niners may be afraid of that risk considering how bad they’ve been at QB this past decade.
8. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
A monster in the middle who can make Titans fans forget about Albert Haynesworth very quickly. Although DE and QB are bigger needs, this team can’t pass on Fairley who helped Auburn win a national title with an outstanding performance at the highest stage.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Prince is clearly the second best secondary prospect available, and the Cowboys need help defending the pass. I’ve had a DE or an OT here recently, but ultimately believe the Dallas brass won’t be able to pass on a sure thing like Amukamara.
10. Washington Redskins (6-10)
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Again, not totally confident that this is where he will end up, but with that said, the Redskins need to figure out their QB situation and drafting Gabbert would be a step in the right direction. Other offensive needs at RB and WR can be addressed later. Also, don’t be shocked to see them trade down with a team vying for a top-rated DE/OLB player such as Da’Quan Bowers or a QB that has fallen to No. 10 such as Gabbert. Scouts and analysts are high on this year’s QB prospects, I’m not. Time will tell.
11. Houston Texans (6-10)
Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
Secondary help is needed, but Smith fits the need and the system. Hopefully he can team up with Mario Williams and create havoc against opposing QBs.
12. Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Knee injuries are a concern for Bowers, so he drops here, but he could go as high as No. 3 to Buffalo. He can also drop to No. 20. He was once the top-rated prospect by Scouts, Inc., so he has some value despite the plaguing injury.
13. Detroit Lions (6-10)
Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Best OT available gets snagged quickly by a Lions team that desperately needs to protect its franchise QB Matt Stafford.
14. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
They’d love nothing more than to see Jones fall here, but he won’t, so a DE like Watt is a good bet. If he blossoms into a starter right away, then the Rams could be looking at nine or ten wins.
15. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
Cameron Jordan, DE/OLB, California
Another hybrid DE/OLB type, Jordan is the son of a former NFL player and will help the Dolphins non-effective pass rush. I’ve seen Mark Ingram go here, but I don’t think Miami considers their top need as a RB right now.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
The pass-rushing parade continue through the middle of the round as the Jaguars shore up a high-motor end in Kerrigan who will likely switch to linebacker as a rookie. A safety is needed, but none is available here for a team that could add a guy to get after Peyton Manning.
17. New England Patriots (14-2) (from Oakland)
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
A bit high for Ayers, but my guess is that some else, other than the Pats, will be picking him here. With that said, if the Pats stay they will more than likely go DE or OLB here as they need to revamp their pass rush.
18. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Possibly the draft’s most underrated player, Liuget is a force in the middle and will help a San Diego team that couldn’t stop the run for its life last season. A pass-rusher is needed too, so if one falls expect the Chargers to jump the gun.
19. New York Giants (10-6)
Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
The Giants need a versatile interior lineman and they can’t do much better than Pouncey, the brother of Pittsburgh’s Maurkice who was a Pro Bowl selection as a rookie last season. An oddball pick here would be Ingram, his dad was a giant and the team may want to look away from Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, who have been inconsistent.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Right now, the Bucs don’t have the DE’s to compete in the NFC. If Clayborn pans out, we could be looking at a wild card team, or even a division winner. They need to apply pressure to the QB.
21. Kansas City Chiefs
Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
Wilkerson is so versatile and ferocious that he can’t possibly slip past the Chiefs at No. 21. The team needs a player like him, and in this simulation he falls into their lap. Perfect fit.
22. Indianapolis Colts
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
A former tight end, Solder will have the NFL’s most daunting task next season, protecting Peyton Manning. He may not be the top OT on the Colts board, but the team would be stupid not to go OT here with the mid-first round talent available at the position.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
A corner is needed in Philly with the retirement of Ellis Hobbs, but the team can’t say that secondary is their biggest concern in 2011. Protecting Michael Vick from the likes of Clay Matthews (who single handily punched out Philly in round 1) has to be the top priority.
24. New Orleans Saints
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
The shocker pick of the first round no doubt here. However, it makes sense if you think about it. Reggie Bush is in a walk year, and is grossly overpaid. It doesn’t matter if he wants a pay cut, because his days in New Orleans are coming to an end. Chris Ivory was a nice feel good story, but there needs to be a viable, long-term feature back to share the load with Pierre Thomas, who has had injury problems.
25. Seattle Seahawks
Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Most like Washington’s Jake Locker here, if he is even available, but I think he slips. Another possibility is that the Seahawks shop this pick to a team who wants Locker, because they don’t want to risk it. Overall, too many needs in Seattle to say that QB is the route they are willing to go. There are plenty of second round options available to them.
26. Baltimore Ravens
Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
The Ravens need a top corner, and Smith is a top 20 talent and would be a top 20 pick if it weren’t for conduct issues. It’s a steal for Baltimore to get him here, and it fits their biggest need.
27. Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
Matt Ryan need a security blanket for the future, and Rudolph is this year’s best tight end. Sadly, Tony Gonzalez is nearing the end of his Hall of Fame career.
28. New England Patriots
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Again, New England may trade away this pick (I’d be willing to bet they do), which means a QB like Locker or Dalton could be selected here. If Ingram slides, the team may be too tempted to address its pressing RB need with the best prospect availble at the position. If they stay put, and Ingram is not there, Carimi is the best run blocking tackle in the draft. Outstanding pick and sure-fire starter for the Pats for years. Not bad for No. 28.
29. Chicago Bears
Derek Sherrod, OT, Miss St.
A safety would be the pick if one was good enough to be taken this high; however the Bears may also be in the mood to shop this pick if all the top DT and OT prospects are off the board. Sherrod is solid, but sort of a reach, and the team already missed three years ago with another SEC tackle, Chris Williams.
30. New York Jets
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio St.
Cam Heyward is a monster pass rusher, and the Jets could be the winners of the first round if he slides all the way to No. 30. He may be too tempting for the Falcons, Pats and Bears to pass up, but if he slips, the Jets will be licking their chops.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers
Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
Two Baylor players in the first round, is it really possible? When you finish with the offensive line that Pittsburgh did last year, then it’s understandable. They need an upgrade at every position.
32. Green Bay Packers
Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia
Seeing Ingram slip all the way to No. 32 is scary, because he would have to draw interest from Green Bay who obviously wants to take the load off of Aaron Rodgers. With that said, Ingram is gone here, and Houston is a steal (projected as high as No. 18 by some) and the Packers need a partner for Clay Matthews to apply heat from the weak side. This could be yet another spot where a trade could occur.
Thanks for reading it all the way to the end, I know the online version is a lot more dense than the print version, but remember, the draft matters and every pick is crucial, from No. 1 to Mr. Irrelevant, which is why I can’t wait for this weekend, arguably my favorite of the year.
