On Sunday, Feb. 23, elections were held in Germany several months early after the collapse of the center-left leaning traffic light coalition late last year.
The opposition, which was favored to win, includes the center-right alliance of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), as well as the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, now expected to become the next chancellor, obtained 28.5% of the vote, but the AfD came in second place, gaining one in five (20.8%) German votes, doubling their vote share since the last election in 2021. It’s the strongest showing for a far-right party in Germany since World War II.
The AfD has made recent headlines after collaborating with high-profile American officials. Vice President J.D. Vance went out of his way to meet with leader Alice Weidel, while Elon Musk endorsed the AfD on social media.
Two weeks later, Musk joined a party convention remotely via VideoLink, saying that Germany has had “too much of a focus on past guilt.”
Despite being largely ostracized by mainstream German politicians, the AfD’s popularity has grown, particularly among working-class voters in the east and rust belts of the west. The AfD gained a whopping 17 points among workers – bringing their total to 38% – many of whom left the incumbent Social Democractic Party (SPD).
35 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain, the results indicate that divisions in Germany are growing. In what used to be East Germany, 41 out of the 44 constituencies were dominated by the AfD, with clusters of support for more centrist and leftist parties in Berlin and Leipzig.
Historically, the higher performance of more conservative parties in the east has been attributed to post-reunification disparities in economic development and employment opportunities.
This is consistent with the experience of Elena Krone, a first-year international studies student at DU. Krone was born and raised in Berlin to a German father and American mother before later immigrating to the U.S.
“There are still definitely economic and social divides… in Berlin itself, not just between what was then East and West Germany. Denazification in the East was different than in the West. There are differences in the conversations you have with people who are older… their schooling was different from the West,” Krone said. “It creates different cultural connotations and social expectations.”
The election results also show a stark difference between the preferences of younger and older voters. While older Germans tended to stick to centrist parties – with those over the age of 70 being the most likely to reject the AfD – those between 18 and 24 years old voted in political extremes.
Die Linke, which translates to “the Left,” was a popular choice among younger Germans, who practically resurrected the party after one of its leaders went viral on TikTok. Die Linke earned a quarter of the youth vote, but the AfD had their fair share of youth support as well, earning 21%.
An engineering student at the University of Stuttgart in southwestern Germany named Berit Maute thinks part of the AfD’s appeal to younger voters is it’s lack of a religious component, unlike the only other conservative party.
“The CSU is the Christian party, and they’re center-right, and I think a lot of young voters aren’t as religious anymore, so their only other options are farther right or farther left,” said Maute.
Overall, the political shifts in Germany reflect a desire for change in a country that hasn’t been this politically engaged in decades. The election saw a record-breaking voter turnout of 82.5%, the highest since 1987, three years before reunification.
The results also indicate that the AfD managed to mobilize 2 million non-voters, more than any other party in Germany. Yet despite its record showing, 70% of voters told a German polling company called Infratest dimap they don’t want to see the AfD in government. Another poll by research institute Forschungsgruppe Wahlen saw that figure jump to 74%.
The strong showing of AfD may be due to dissatisfaction with the traditional political establishment. The previous coalition, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD alongside two more liberal parties, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, collapsed after weeks of infighting over how to handle the country’s economic crisis.
The SPD, which is Germany’s oldest political party, recorded its lowest numbers in over a century, garnering only 16.5% of the vote.
While incoming Chancellor Merz has promised immigration and economic reform, as well as continued support for Ukraine – all crucial issues during the election – he faces an uphill battle.
Germany’s federal government operates through the Bundestag, its primary legislative body, where members are elected every four years. Because there are several political parties, a single party rarely secures an absolute majority in the Bundestag, so parties collaborate to establish a combined majority or coalition. The leader of the dominant party within the coalition serves as the chancellor.
Despite the AfD’s strong performance and comments from leader Weidel indicating her willingness to begin coalition negotiations, Merz has explicitly ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD in line with the Brandmauer, or firewall, which excludes extremist parties from governing coalitions. The main political parties have adopted the Brandmauer out of fear of a resurgence of the far right.
Instead, he’s expected to collaborate with more centrist parties like the SPD, hoping to form a coalition by Easter. If he doesn’t, the country would likely hold a second round of elections. Krone worries that the resulting disillusionment might encourage Germans to vote differently.
“I think that’s how the AfD would gain the rest of the support that it needs,” she said.
Still, she and Maute remain optimistic about Germany’s future.
“I am hopeful, obviously we still have yet to see what coalition they come up with… depending on that, my hope will sink or rise,” Maute said.
