Presi-DU-ntial Race 2024 is the Clarion’s weekly take on what is shaping up to be one of the more consequential years in American politics. Whether it is a particular state primary or a gaffe made by a candidate, this column is where to find DU’s opinion on what is going on.
By the time this article is published, results will be pouring in from the Iowa Caucus. Being the first election night of the Republican presidential nomination process, a lot is at stake. Iowa is viewed as a consequential battleground for candidates, with the momentum of winners often translating into positive results down the road. That being said, there are a couple of predictions that are worth touching on.
By far the least surprising and least exciting prediction is that former president Donald Trump will sweep the Iowa Caucuses. Trump is currently polling at 60.4% nationally and has only been gaining support since 2023. In Iowa, he’s polling comfortably at 51.3%, over 30 points more than second place Nikki Haley. There is reason to believe, however, that he could still underperform.
For one, no Republican candidate has ever won Iowa by more than 13%. If the polls end up being correct, Trump would be demolishing the current record. Secondly, both Ron DeSantis and Haley have been aggressively campaigning in Iowa, with Trump’s campaign supposedly cutting back on their door-to-door operations.
These two factors could cost him a large victory, which would be shadowed by potentially more underwhelming results in the New Hampshire primary where Nikki Haley is polling relatively close to him. While there is plenty of evidence to reassure Trump’s campaign that these potential results would not matter in the long term, they could provide a boost to Haley’s campaign, which leads to the second prediction.
The more consequential prediction is that Haley will emerge in Iowa as the strongest challenger to Trump. DeSantis and Haley have been neck and neck the past couple of weeks in the Iowa polls, but Haley emerged on top after the GOP debate last Wednesday. A strong performance in Iowa could cement her status as the primary challenger to Trump.
There are a couple of important reasons to believe Haley’s success is imminent. For one, DeSantis and Trump are appealing to the same voter bases, while Haley is tapping into a voter base that neither is gaining support from. The most notable of these groups are college-educated Republicans.
While Trump has still received a healthy amount of support from Republican college graduates, Haley has recently become the frontrunner for this group, polling around 35%. DeSantis, on the other hand, has experienced a worrying decline among this group, polling a little under 10%. This should discourage Ron Desantis’s campaign, as the other groups the current Governor of Florida has been focusing on—such as evangelicals—have increasingly flocked to Trump instead.
Even a slim second-place victory for DeSantis in Iowa might not be enough in the short term. The next primary in New Hampshire on Jan. 23 will likely see only a slim victory for Trump over Haley, which could further cement her position as the challenger. This leads us to the third and final prediction.
This is the beginning of the end of the DeSantis campaign. If DeSantis emerges in third place, his campaign might pull the plug. While it is unlikely to happen directly after the Iowa Caucus on Monday, an exit could be expected in the coming months, especially if he is third again in New Hampshire and Nevada.
It is not hard to argue that DeSantis’s trajectory has been nothing but downhill since it started. Voters view him as uncharismatic, his debate performances have been poor and his attempt to capture some of Trump’s support base has been tragically mediocre. Haley is distinct from Trump in more ways than can be counted, and while this likely won’t win her the nomination, trying to “out-Trump” the man himself is an even worse strategy.
