President Biden formally committed to providing Ukrainian pilots with fourth-generation fighter pilot training, including operational logistics for F-16 aircraft. The announcement, occurring at the G-7 meeting in Hiroshima, came after months of internal debate and dialogue with European allies.
While providing training for F-16s, it is unlikely the Ukrainian air force will receive the actual F-16 fighter jets until fall at the earliest. It is unclear which states will donate their surplus F-16s to the Ukrainians. The Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark have all expressed reluctance in doing so; Belgium explicitly stated they do not have any spare aircraft. Poland has also indicated they will not donate, having already provided Ukraine with Soviet-era MiG-29s.
Until recently, defense officials were wary to commit to F-16 provisions given perceptions that doing so would escalate tensions with Russia. The tipping point came after President Biden received a “flat assurance” from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy that no aircraft would be used to infringe on Russian territory.
Another factor contributing to the decision is the possibility of an upcoming Ukrainian spring offensive. While the aircraft would not arrive until the fall, American defense officials are cognizant of continuing long-term defense cooperation in support of Ukrainian offensive success. The Ukrainian offensive will likely occur in the upcoming weeks with a focus on the south of the country near Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
Many analysts view the offensive as a consequential turning point in the war. Western military support could waiver without a decisive Ukrainian victory, leaving Kyiv to agree on a ceasefire or negotiate an end to the conflict. Ukrainian forces, however, are optimistic the offensive will push back Russian defenses. American officials, while cautious, acknowledge Ukrainian forces could surprise them again as they now have access to European and American equipment including armored personnel carriers, HIMARS weapon systems, mine-clearing equipment and new ammunition stocks.
As summer fast approaches, the spring offensive has been delayed due to weather, training and weaponry limitations. A wet and cold spring has inhibited the frozen ground to thaw and freeze, creating muddy conditions which prevents the transport of critical weaponry. Additionally, over the past several months, tens of thousands of Ukrainians trained by American and European military forces have started to return to the country. The growing number of Ukrainian returnees coincides with newly arrived weapons and ammunition support provided by the United States, which pledged more than $14 billion over the past five months.
A day after Biden’s F-16 announcement, Wagner group leader Yevgeny V. Prigozhin claimed full control of Bakhmut, seizing a rare yet costly victory for the Russian side. Though a symbolic rather than strategic city in the conflict, Bakhmut has been a primary focus for both sides as they seek to win a moral victory for their troops. The Wagner paramilitary group has already begun to withdraw from the city, replaced by Russian state military forces.
The victory raises questions, however, as to how long Russian forces will actually be able to hold onto the city. Wagner is often perceived as “an emergency force” for the Russian side, conscripting convicts to fill its ranks. While conceding defeat, Ukrainian defense officials stated their forces will now shift to focus on making it both more difficult for Russia to hold onto the symbolic city while also moving its front lines deeper into eastern Ukrainian states.
