On Sunday, May 28, Turkey went to the polls to elect their next president. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held power as president since 2014, prevailing again by a thin margin of 52 percentage points to his opponent, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu’s 48 percentage points. Erdogan prevailed in the first round of voting but failed to capture a majority of the vote, forcing a second round run-off weeks later.
The results marked the end of a bitter campaign in which Erdogan accused the opposition of being in line with Kurdish terrorist organizations after Kiliçdaroglu was endorsed by the main Kurdish opposition party. Kiliçdaroglu responded by declaring the electoral process as being some of the most unfair he has seen, arguing that national media outlets had backed Erdogan throughout the campaign.
The close margin of victory by Erdogan highlights a polarized Turkish nation that has often been commented as being divided between the nation’s secularists and Islamists. Campaign maps show a clear geographic divide as well, with the west coast, large urban centers such as Istanbul and the Kurdish majority southeast of the nation voting heavily for the opposition party. The heartland of the country in contrast voted overwhelmingly for Erdogan.
Erdogan’s victory comes in spite of multiple crises that have afflicted the country in the past few months. An earthquake hit southern Turkey and northern Syria, killing thousands and leveling hundreds of buildings. The event had some residents question the government’s response while also leaving thousands of voters homeless just months before the first round of the election.
Along with the earthquake, Turkey has also been experiencing high inflation of 43 percent prior to the second round of voting. However, Erdogan tried to soften the blow of inflation by dramatically increasing public spending and insulating voters from the decreasing value of the lira. Because of this spending spree, economists have noted that while it may help Erdogan in the short-term, it is an unsustainable economic policy that will likely lead to a contraction or recession in the coming months.
From a democratic perspective, the election itself was “free” according to international observers, but hardly “fair.” This means that while vote-rigging strategies like ballot stuffing were absent from the voting process, the greater level of resources afforded to Erdogan and his AK Party through greater financial pockets and media attention gave them a heavy advantage over Kiliçdaroglu.
Democratic activists and leaders in the west have shown concern over another Erdogan victory. For activists, the narrow margin of victory has instilled fear that Erdogan may crackdown on popular opposition figures in the future to give him a greater chance at electoral victory. While western leaders such as President Biden and President Macron of France congratulated Erdogan, Turkey’s neutral stance towards Russia during the invasion of Ukraine has left leaders of NATO frustrated and hopeful that a change in leadership may provide a more pro-western foreign policy.
While the election may provide Erdogan and Turkey a moment of brief respite from their ongoing crises, the future is rocky for a leader going into his second decade of power.
