Turkey recently held a pivotal presidential election that would have not only dictated the political and economic trajectory of the country, but also the fate of millions of refugees living in the country. The results, however, were not consequential and a run-off election will take place on May 28.
The two candidates fighting for power are the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for the past 20 years, and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Both political figures hold differing conceptions of what Turkey should look like, but the best starting point is to dive into what Erdogan’s time as president has looked like.
Erdogan has had nothing short of a tricky relationship with democracy. There is a general consensus that the past 20 years of his rule have coincided with a consistent decrease in levels of democratic governance.
While a number of external and societal trends have put pressure on Turkey’s democracy, much of the pressure is the result of Erdogan himself. Not only has he perpetuated the societal polarization between conservative and progressive camps, but he has also transformed the parliamentary system into a presidential one, resulting in the abandonment of checks and balances.
The transformation of Turkey’s government took place after a failed coup attempt in July 2016. After declaring a state of emergency, Erdogan used the special powers to chip away at the opposition by imprisoning thousands of political figures and journalists.
Eventually, in 2017, a successful ballot measure transformed the parliamentary system into a presidential system. This transformation entailed an accumulation of powers that concerned experts due to the lack of checks and balances.
This structural transformation coincided with an erosion of the rule of law, questionable elections and a weakening of opposition leaders. Freedom of expression has also declined, and most media companies have been transferred to business figures who are sympathetic to Erdogan’s regime.
As such, the upcoming runoff signals that Erdogan’s power might be gradually slipping away. The past decade has seen the Republican People’s Party, the strongest opposition party in Turkey, usually earns around 30% of the vote in presidential elections. The first round of elections a couple of weeks ago, however, saw the CHP gain 44.5% of the vote.
This is likely due to a number of factors. For one, the lire (Turkey’s currency) has seen its value consistently plummet since 2018. Despite a number of attempts to put it back on track, no policy has been successful in this respect. There is also a growing frustration in regard to Erdogan’s islamic nationalism and autocratic tendencies. That being said, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu represents something new and different to many voters despite his own shortcomings.
Kiliçdaroglu is best known as a soft-spoken yet extremely experienced politician. He was first elected to public office in 2002, and in 2010 he became the leader of the CHP and has lost several elections since then. His rhetoric generally focuses on uniting all aspects of society and has done work in the past in regard to anti-corruption.
There are similarities between the two candidates, however, and it is these similarities that might be the root of the success Kiliçdaroglu has experienced so far. The CHP frontrunner has recently announced his plan to deport all refugees in a country with around 3.5 million Syrian refugees. This announcement is part of an increasingly nationalist agenda Kiliçdaroglu has started to embrace.
Whether his stance on refugees is a temporary electoral tool or not, the agenda he is setting could have lasting negative impacts on human rights. Even though Kiliçdaroglu represents a pro-democracy option for Turkish voters, his xenophobia could hurt millions of people.
The upcoming run-offs represent a potential win for democracy in a world that is becoming increasingly less democratic. Yet the problem this run-off represents is rather unique. Is Turkish democracy worth the displacement of millions of already displaced people? The answer is one the citizens of Turkey must grapple with. If democracy does increase, then all we can hope is that the next leader makes the right decision.
