On Feb. 10, Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita stepped down amidst pressure from simultaneous crises, including the war in Ukraine. The small nation of 2.6 million people elected a pro-western parliament and president in 2021 with promises of joining the European Union. In 2022, Moldova received candidate status with the E.U. and continues to make reforms to speed up accession.
Aside from the war in neighboring Ukraine, Moldova is struggling to combat inflation and address energy security from Russia. In 2022, Moldova’s inflation reached record highs while interest rate levels rose to 21.5 percent. Continued dependence on Russian oil in addition to the migration of thousands of Ukrainian refugees has put further strain on one of Europe’s poorest economies.
To rectify this, last September, Germany attempted to mend the situation by supplying financial aid worth 60 million Euros intended to address the energy crisis. Despite the effort, pressure from the Moldovan people forced Gavrilita’s resignation.
Succeeding Gavrilita, Dorin Recean was voted in as Prime Minister on Feb. 16. Recean has prior experience in government, serving as the Minister of the Interior from 2012-15. Just prior to his nomination, he was serving as the Secretary of the Supreme Security Council, an advisory body on national security and military matters.
Crucially, he maintains the same views as his predecessor toward the European Union and Russia. Recean desires further support in progressively integrating Moldova within the European Union, stating, “The new government will continue the implementation of Moldova’s strategic course – integration into the European Union.”
However, economic and political instability have multiplied fears of a potential Russian-backed coup in the former Soviet-bloc nation. In fact, on Feb. 13, Moldovan president Maia Sandu alleged that Ukrainian Intelligence forces had intercepted documents revealing a Russian strategy to topple the pro-western government.
This strategy included funneling millions of dollars into cohorts of pro-Russian Moldovan politicians that were meant to reorient the existing pro-western structure of parliament and presidency. Political leaders like Ilan Shor, the opposition leader of a pro-Russian political party, were meant to spearhead these efforts. In September, the now exiled politician led a protest of thousands against the government in effort to force the resignation of then Prime Minister Gavrilitia.
Aside from the external funding of political opposition figures, existing fears lie with the breakaway province of Transnistria, where Russian troops are currently stationed. At the beginning of the Ukrainian invasion, fears arose that a land bridge could have been formed connecting Crimea to Transnistria, giving Russia ample opportunity to continue its military incursions into Moldova. While those fears have subsided, tension remains as the war in Ukraine drags on.
During President Biden’s trip to eastern Europe, he affirmed and ensured the sovereignty of Moldova. The White House stated, “He highlighted ongoing U.S. assistance to help Moldova strengthen its political and economic resilience, including its democratic reform agenda and energy security, and to address the effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine.”
While initial panic over a potential coup has subsided in Moldova, anxiety and fear persist over the looming influence Russian has over its former Soviet nations and whether or not the United States and Europe will continue supporting Moldova’s sovereignty as the war in Ukraine drags on into its second year.
