Midterms are always important- not only because we get to witness who our newly elected representatives will be, but we are also able to finally put numbers and names to questions we find ourselves asking. That being said, there are three particular things to keep an eye on, especially when considering the presidential election that isn’t too far off. 

The first two areas of interest are centered around the impact that recent events will have on voter turnout. To be more specific, how the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade will impact voter turnout on the left, and how Trump’s full embracement of QAnon (or Q) will impact voter turnout on the right. 

The final, and arguably the most, important area of interest is centered around officials at the local and state level who are in charge of certifying votes. A far-right grassroots movement has been initiated as a result of the 2020 election myth, and these midterms could tell us if our decentralized voting system is at risk of manipulation. 

The overturning of Roe v. Wade is the more significant of the two circumstances in regard to voter turnout. The Supreme Court’s decision affects a large percentage of the population, if not the entirety of the population, for a number of direct and indirect reasons. The decision has fundamentally reshaped the way in which people live their lives, and this most certainly will lead to a reshaping in the political perceptions people hold.

Voter registration in recent times reflects the social and political importance of the decision. Within a month after the Dobbs decision, voter registration among women in 10 states (Kansas, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oklahoma, Florida, North Carolina, Idaho, Alabama, New Mexico, and Maine) increased collectively by 35 percent compared to just a 9 percent voter registration increase among men. 

It is important to put these numbers in context with past registration statistics, especially in regard to the gains that the Republican Party experienced earlier in the year. In Pennsylvania for example, a key swing state, the democrat advantage in terms of voters has been chipped away at due to party switching. In Nov. 2020 the Democrats held a voter advantage of 685,000, compared to an advantage of only 540,000 now. 

Furthermore, over one million Americans across 43 states in the past year have switched to the GOP, putting the post-Dobbs registration statistics into perspective yet again. Many of these switches have to do with the educated suburban vote, the same vote predominately responsible for the election of President Joe Biden. While these statistics were gathered pre-Dobbs, the question still remains: will the surge in voter registration among Democrats be enough? 

One instance that provides a sense of optimism is the constitutional referendum on abortion access that was held in Kansas. In August, the first ballot measure in the country that decided a state’s stance on access to abortion resulted in an overwhelming majority (59 percent) in favor of abortion rights. This is the same state where 56 percent of the votes went toward Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. 

The fact that a comfortably red state voted to secure abortion rights is significant, and displays how unpopular the recent policy decisions in other states truly are. It’s important to note that this referendum occurred when the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision was especially ripe in the minds of everyone. That being said, no one fathomed the outcome of this referendum as even being a possibility. 

Kansas should make Democrats and abortion rights activists optimistic about the midterms, but that optimism should be of a cautious breed. Just as no one could predict the outcome of this referendum, no one can truly predict what will come of the midterms. 

Voter turnout in regards to the recent political stunts employed by Donald Trump poses a question that is even harder to answer: is Trump’s full-fledged embracement of QAnon good for Republican turnout, or bad?

During a rally in Ohio last week, Trump can be seen stating to his supporters how they are “one movement, one people, one family, and one glorious American nation” all the while a song closely resembling “Wwg1wga” plays in the background. “Wwg1wga” is a song that represents the Q slogan “Where we go one, we go all,” which also helps to explain the one-finger salutes that the crowd held up during his speech. 

This rally coupled with his recent posts on his social media platform—Truth Social—represents a dramatic increase in his acceptance of QAnon conspiracies. More than a third of Trump’s 75 posts within the past month have directly promoted QAnon in some fashion. One of the more alarming examples involves the posting of a picture that depicts him wearing a Q lapel pin with the words “The storm is coming,” a direct reference to his looming political “victory.”

The dramatic and overt acceptance of the extremist movement comes at a time when Trump is currently campaigning for Republicans—and for himself—across the country. The rally discussed above was Trump’s attempt at garnering support for the Ohio Senate Candidate J.D. Vance, who is facing off against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan. Ohio is an important swing state, and voter turnout is going to be instrumental for both Republicans and Democrats if they hope to win. 

That being said, is Trump’s rhetorical acceptance of QAnon a tactically sound decision for the Republican Party? The answer seems like it would be an easy no, but there are reasons why it could be a yes. 

According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, QAnon is a “spiderweb” of conspiracies that claim “the world is run by a secret cabal of pedophiles” who are “plotting against Trump.” As crazy as it sounds, the PRRI estimates that around 16 percent, or around 41 million Americans, believe in QAnon-related conspiracies. 

It is hard to imagine that someone who believes in a theory as severe and dire as this would not act politically. With Trump tapping into this political resource, it is hard to imagine a scenario where voter turnout among QAnon supporters is not extremely high. 

There are few studies to be found on voter turnout among QAnon supporters. However, when considering that both the far left and far right (both groups that are extremely committed to political causes) typically have an 85 percent voter turnout, it is hard to imagine that QAnon supporters would not fall into that realm. These midterms could potentially help us to better answer that question. Furthermore, if this base of voters becomes this politically active, it could pose a bigger threat than expected to the Democrat’s midterm hopes. 

The final and arguably most important aspect of the upcoming midterms is also one of the more disheartening. The other myth Trump has indulged in, the 2020 election lie, has initiated a grassroots political movement to capture the offices that are responsible for certifying elections. 

According to a recent New York Times opinion video, voter suppression isn’t necessarily what we need to worry about. What we need to worry about are the people in positions of power that have the ability to decide whose votes count. This is predominantly taking place on the state and local levels, which allows these movements to be more elusive. 

Take the position of Secretary of State for example. The Secretary of State is responsible for certifying election results at the state level before they can be processed higher up the food chain. This position’s importance becomes especially noticed after looking back at Georgia during the 2020 presidential election. 

Georgia—a typically red state—shocked the nation when they voted blue for President Biden. As a result, Trump and his cabinet at the time repeatedly contacted the Secretary of State, Ben Raffensperger, about the “fraudulent votes” that needed to be discarded. Raffensperger, a fellow Republican, held strong during a phone call with the former president that lasted over an hour, telling the president repeatedly that there was no voter fraud. 

The importance of this is that Raffensperger had the power to challenge the votes if he wanted to: and he’s not the only one that could’ve done so. Referring back to the NYT op-ed video, the local and state officials responsible for certifying votes before the Secretary of State can have the power to challenge votes as well. All of this culminates to a realization on behalf of Trump and his allies that these positions, if captured, could mean winning elections in the future. 

This is what makes these midterms in particular so important. As it stands, there are at least seven states where the Republican nominee for Secretary of State believes the 2020 election was stolen. Some of these states include Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan, all of which are extremely important swing states. All in all, 60 percent of voters in the U.S. will have an election denier on their ballot. 

These midterms will also allow us to observe whether or not the election deniers have already effectively mobilized on the hyper local level. As the results begin to pour in, it will be interesting to see how many—if any—of the votes are formally challenged. If we do see such a situation, it’s a good time to start getting productively worried. 

All in all, the best we can do as individuals is to educate ourselves on who we are voting for, and most importantly, go vote. If you are a DU student or faculty member, or someone who has any relationship with DU, keep an eye out for the New Era tables set up around campus to check your registration status or even register to vote—it only takes a couple of minutes! We all deserve to have our voices heard, and voting is a simple way in which we can do so.