Since the start of May, India has faced a deadly second wave of COVID-19. The reported numbers are staggering, with 19 million infected and 219,000 confirmed dead. But experts predict the death toll is actually much higher as hospitals suffer from oxygen and bed-capacity shortages. 

There have been widespread calls for a nationwide lockdown amidst the surge. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to impose a lockdown due to fears of economic fallout and political repercussions. 

Rather than focus government spending on patient resources, such as more oxygen supplies and bed capacities, Modi has instead pushed forward with his $1.8 billion “Central Vista Redevelopment Project.” This parliamentary project includes a new residence for the Prime Minister. The project has been categorized as an “essential service,” but many critics—including parliamentary officials—have called it a “vanity project.”

Experts attribute several factors to the sudden case surge in India. In April, Prime Minister Modi approved religious gatherings without imposing COVID-19 safety protocols. Officials also point to the dramatic decrease in vaccination rates following supply and delivery issues. 

Additionally, while there is speculation the surge is caused by a new COVID-19 variant, researchers say limited data cannot conclusively support or disprove such assumptions. It is likely, however, that the B.1.1.7 variant—prominent in the United Kingdom and the United States—is likely to blame. 

The global implications

The COVID-19 surge in India has had direct implications on the global supply chain of vaccine distribution, most notably for underdeveloped and developing nations. As the primary distributor of the AstraZeneca vaccine, India has restricted vaccine exports. 

With only 4% of its population vaccinated, India has held onto nearly 2.4 million doses produced by the Serum Institute of India—the primary global AstraZeneca producer. The country has been responsible for supplying nearly 70 nations with the AstraZeneca vaccine. Some speculate the move is a part of Prime Minister Modi’s attempt to assert India’s geopolitical influence against other large vaccine producers such as China and the United States. 

A DU perspective from the South Asian Student Alliance

Like many people across the world, Atresha Singh is equally frustrated and alarmed by the costly COVID-19 surge in India. Currently serving as Graduate Advisor for the University of Denver South Asian Student Alliance (SASA), Singh has family in India, making the issue a personal one. 

“My family is quite worried and has tried to take all possible precautions when staying indoors,” said Singh. “The virus has spread like no other. And in such a heavily-populated country, it is hard to not come in contact with the virus.”

The likelihood of contact with the virus is even higher for Singh’s family, the majority of whom work in the medical field. India’s overburdened and under-resourced healthcare institutions have been pushed over the edge with the rising surge of infections throughout the country. 

“They [medical professionals] are burnt to the bone,” said Singh. “There are not enough beds for patients. Mass cremations are happening. Cars are being turned into medical wards.”

The overworked system is unlikely to see a reprieve anytime soon. According to Singh, many Indians are greatly disappointed with the lack of governmental responsibility during the crisis. Prime Minister Modi’s decision to allow large events has only cultivated a breeding ground for COVID-19. 

The lack of accurate and timely information has fueled the surge. With no consideration for India’s population size, healthcare capacities and medical access, many believe Modi has used the pandemic to serve those in positions of power rather than the common population. Distrust in both reliable COVID-19 information and governmental actions presents an alarming and unsure future for India. 

For Singh, however, one fact does remain clear: “India is suffering like it never has before. It is literally on the brink of death.”

Students interested in learning more or helping with donations can reach out to SASA for further information. 

Support on an international scale

With India being the world’s biggest producer of COVID-19 vaccines, there has been a concerted effort from international actors to stop the massive surge of COVID-19 cases. India is suffering from a lack of supplies and hospital beds to treat this second wave. The country had no expectation for a second wave nor saw a need to register more than 1 billion doses of the vaccine at the time.

India is struggling to keep up with the country’s COVID-19 crisis, vaccinating half as many people as it did a month ago. In order to save their campaign for vaccination, the country has lowered the obstacles for foreign vaccine producers to sell in India. Since approving Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, 150,000 doses have arrived in the country. However, with no timeline from the government or Russian ambassador Nikolay Kudashev, it is unclear when local production of this vaccine will start. 

Not only is the Indian population at high risk with their limited vaccination rate, many are dying outside of hospitals due to a shortage of oxygen. However, there has been a great amount of international aid to get India the supplies they need to survive this surge of infections. 

The U.S., Russia and the U.K. have aided India by sending emergency supplies consisting of oxygen generators, face masks and vaccines. France, Germany and the U.K. have helped out immensely by providing oxygen generator plants and ventilators. 

With the huge international effort to get India the supplies they need, a group of British doctors has set up long-distance telemedicine appointments to relieve Indian doctors and colleagues of some of their workload. This effort allows them to solely concentrate on treating their positive COVID-19 patients. 

Where does India go from here? Top U.S. pandemic advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said that India as a whole must go into lockdown. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has refused to implement this, many states have imposed heavy restrictions. However, without enough international support and a nationwide lockdown, India is at severe risk of facing a total collapse of its healthcare system.