As the All-Star Break approaches (July 13-16), it’s beginning to be easier to tell who’s going to be in the playoff race come October—and who’s going to be heading home in September. Those who are at or close to the top of the standings will be poaching players from teams at the bottom of the standings (like a certain Colorado team). The short answer is that the Rockies will be sellers, but it could be more complicated than that.
The Rockies were within reach of .500 (even number of wins and losses) in June, but remained in last place after losing series to the Dodgers, Marlins, Astros, Giants and Athletics. Going into the All-Star Break around 10 games under a winning record doesn’t usually bode well, and means that the Rockies will most likely be trading key players away to teams who are in the hunt. However, could this lead to a better outcome for the Rockies than anything else?
Hitting isn’t the problem for the Rockies: pitching is, as it always has been. DJ LeMahieu, Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado are just a few of the players having good, if not great, years. Yet, despite all of this power hitting, the Rockies still can’t maintain a winning record, proving the importance of pitching. Trading away position players could lead to an increase in pitching talent that would seriously benefit the Rockies.
Carlos Gonzalez and Tulowitzki have been the most mentioned as potential trade bait. Pitcher Jorge De La Rosa has also been talked about as someone who might be on the trading block due to the amount of teams who will need starting pitching during the season’s home stretch. All of these three players are also making considerable sums of money.
Tulo is making $20 million this year, CarGo $16 million and De La Rosa is making $12.5. Together, the three players’ contracts add up to $48.5 million, around half of the Rockies’ $95.9 million payroll. The other half is divided between the other 37 players on the Rockies’ rosters, to put that into context. Tulo’s contract runs out at the end of the 2021 season, when he’ll be 36 years old. He’s due to make $94 million more. In order to trade him, the Rockies would probably have to eat some of the contract, but it would open up the payroll and mean that the Rockies wouldn’t be saddled with an older Tulo. CarGo’s contract runs out in 2017, so the Rockies might face some of the same problems as they do with Tulowitzki’s contract, but it might be worth it. Closer John Axford could be of interest to other teams.
Though Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said in May that Tulo trade talk was a fabrication of the media, the rumors have persisted, aided by reports that Tulowitzki has discussed trade options with his agent. The team the most interested in Tulowitzki has seemingly been the New York Mets. Multiple players would be involved in the trade, but Mets’ rookie pitcher Steven Matz could be a possibility. Pitcher Noah Snydergaard has also been tossed around as a possible member of a deal between the Mets and Rockies.
Gonzalez and Tulowitzki are hitting well right now and both of them are somewhat miraculously uninjured, making them easy to trade—besides the monster contracts. Personally, I feel that exchanging them for young pitching could only help the Rockies. They have players to replace CarGo and Tulo’s bats. The Rockies could already even be planning for this: Tulowitzki’s successor Trevor Story was promoted from Double-A to Triple-A on June 30, moving one step closer to the major leagues.
The MLB trade deadline isn’t until July 31, but it’s not too early to speculate about what might happen. Could the Rockies be looking at a different starting lineup in the next month? It’s a possibility and one that I think could only help them. An influx of young pitching coming from trade deals and top Rockies pitching prospect Jon Gray would be great to see and could salvage at least part of the season, though the playoffs will most likely still be out of reach.
The Rockies cannot continue in the same vein that they have been; their hitters are too good to let them waste great years to another season given away by the pitchers. Something’s gotta give. And hopefully it’ll happen at this year’s trade deadline.
Notes:
Arenado was the National League Player of the Week for the week of June 29 after three multi-home run games. He hit .391 with seven home runs and 15 RBI during the week. His career-high 17 game hitting streak came to end July 1 in Oakland. Nevertheless, he’s still fourth in All-Star voting, but Giants manager Bruce Boche will more than likely choose him to be on the team.
Tulowitzki is third in All-Star Voting and LeMahieu isn’t even in the top five. Voting has now closed.
LHP and reliever Christian Bergman was placed on the 15-Day DL with shoulder inflammation and RHP Axford was moved to the family medical emergency list on June 30. LHP Yohan Flande and RHP Justin Miller were recalled from Triple-A to replace them. Closing duties will now be handled by a committee while Axford is on leave.
