Momentum shift in the senate race

As trees shed their leaves and change their colors on the Front Range of the Centennial State, voters and political pundits ask: Will Colorado flip from purple to red this election?

A political shocker stunned Coloradans last week. On Friday, the venerable Denver Post, Colorado’s largest newspaper in terms of circulation, endorsed Republican Senate candidate Cory Gardner. This endorsement, while not a sure sign Gardner will win, might indicate a momentum shift in the Senate race between Gardner and incumbent Democrat Mark Udall.

The Post’s editorial board is considered left-leaning by many, including Politico, a D.C.-based political newspaper and website. The Denver Post also endorsed incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper over his GOP foil Bob Beauprez. Several more key endorsements, including those statewide races for State Treasurer, Attorney General and Secretary of State are expected to be released in the coming days.

Why does the Post endorsement matter? Days before ballots drop—they were mailed on Oct. 14—undecided voters look to media to determine their votes, and the Post is a widely-read daily.

Other papers also endorsed Gardner, including the Colorado Springs Gazette, a surprise to no one, and the Pueblo Chieftain, which serves a primarily Democratic electorate in a blue county. The Post endorsement also matters because of the nature of the paper. It normally endorses Democrats, with a few noteworthy exceptions.

The language of the editorial endorsing Gardner was as much a condemnation of the incumbent; the paper wrote, “Udall is trying to frighten voters rather than inspire them with a hopeful vision. His obnoxious one-issue campaign is an insult to those he seeks to convince.”

Is the momentum now behind Gardner in this crucial race? Some argue yes.

Both candidates have amassed huge war chests in the race, with Gardner’s campaign bringing in $4.35 million in in the last quarter — nearly double what he pulled in for the quarter before that. Udall has not released his third quarter finance report yet. The incumbent has, however, raised nearly double Gardner’s sum, according to the Washington Post. Udall was ahead in fundraising until very recently and was able to capitalize on his monetary advantage by airing early TV ads and establishing his message early on.

Polling still indicates this race is close, far too close for anyone to call. While just weeks ago the Washington Post Election Lab, a midterm forecast, considered Udall a solid victor, it now gives Gardner a 79% chance of victory.

Ultimately, while endorsements matter, this race is far from being decided. Candidates will continue to pontificate, raise money and air TV ads until Nov. 4, and only then will the world know who won Colorado. Gardner’s campaign message expresses a desire to “shake up the Senate.” On Nov. 4, he may do just that.